The European Union Review 

Choix dynamique d’un régime de change pour les PECOs dans leur transition vers l’Euroland

Christian Aubin, Jean-Pierre Berdot, Daniel Goyeau et Jacques Léonard - Université de Poitiers, France

Résumé

Starting from a study of the variety of exchange rate regimes offered to CEECs on their way towards EMU, this paper intends to identify, given the actual constraints faced by these countries, the optimal solution to ensure an economically sustainable transition avoiding disequilibria and speculative crises. The analysis outlines the crucial role of nominal exchange rate management as related to the likely move of the real exchange rate toward its equilibrium value. This leads to advocate a managed flexible exchange rate regime, along with an inflation target, as a preliminary stage before the adhesion to EMS-bis.